Few emerging technologies have generated as much excitement as quantum computers in recent years. The reason is simple: these devices promise to solve problems that are currently unsolvable. But can they? This story aims at checking what is possible now, and what will be tomorrow.
Despite rapid advances in computing capabilities over the past half century, there are still certain calculations that even today’s most powerful supercomputers can’t crack in any reasonable time frame. They include things like accurately modelling the smallest molecules, simulating the most complex materials or finding prime factors or large numbers.
Finding ways to solve these problems could impact large swathes of the economy and help solve some of the grand challenges facing humanity this century. By exploiting the unusual characteristics of quantum systems, quantum computers should be able to dramatically speed up these kinds of calculations and bring solutions within reach.
This could accelerate progress in some crucial areas, making it possible to develop better drugs, cheaper fertilizers, longer lasting batteries and more efficient solar panels. It could even turbocharge progress in artificial intelligence, which would have significant knock-on effects for a host of other sectors.
Quantum computing isn’t a new idea. The potential of this technology has been known since the 1980s when legendary physicist Richard Feynman highlighted its ability to simulate physics beyond classical computers. But excitement has been building in recent years because the technology finally seems to be moving from theory to practice.
In 2019, researchers at Google achieved a crucial landmark known as quantum primacy: they showed, for the first time, that their quantum computer could solve a problem that would be essentially impossible for a classical computer to solve. Since then, funding for quantum computing has skyrocketed. Private investments in 2021 hit a record high of $1.7bn, compared to $187.5m in 2019 and just $93.5 in 2015. There have also been enormous public investments in quantum technology – the US has committed $1.3bn, the EU $7.2bn and China $15bn.
This is leading to rapid progress in the field. Some of the more optimistic predictions suggest we may have quantum computers that are able to tackle practical problems by the end of this decade. If those predictions come to fruition, it could have an enormous impact on society. Many of the problems that quantum computers will excel at are directly applicable to implement the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) outlined by the United Nations.
But making sure that this new technology benefits all of humanity will be a major challenge. Quantum computers are hugely expensive and hard to build so ensuring broad access to them will be difficult. Those developing the technology will also be incentivized to recoup their investment, which could lead to a focus on applications with the greatest potential for profit rather than impact for society.
Quantum computers are also increasingly seen by governments as a prestige technology that has critical geopolitical and security implications. Maintaining the spirit of open collaboration that has powered progress in the field so far will be an onerous task for both scientists and policy makers.
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